Climate Adaptation in Nigeria: How Weak Local Authority Undermines Community Resilience
Climate stress in Nigeria has entered a phase of persistent disruption rather than episodic shock. Between 2022 and 2024, nationwide flooding displaced more than 3 million people, destroyed over 600,000 […]
Leveraging Digital Data for a Credible and Cost-Effective Census
Executive Summary
Nigeria has not conducted a reliable national census since 2006. This has left policymakers reliant on outdated and contested data. The planned 2023 census was budgeted at N896 billion and designed as the first fully digital count. However, it was indefinitely postponed after N234 billion had already been spent.
Traditional nationwide headcounts are fiscally unsustainable, politically contested, and increasingly constrained by insecurity. Yet accurate demographic data remain essential. They are the foundation for resource allocation, service delivery and long-term planning.
To address this persistent data gap, this brief advocates a hybrid census model that draws on existing administrative data. These include the National Identity Number (NIN), Bank Verification Number (BVN), voter register, and SIM registration. Targeted field verification would capture population segments not yet recorded digitally. This approach balances efficiency with comprehensive coverage. Hybrid models can save up to N300–400 billion. This would reduce per capita census costs by 40–50%.
Experiences from Ghana, South Africa, Rwanda, Kenya and Egypt show digital integration works. It delivers reliable results in resource-constrained contexts.
Nigeria must adapt these lessons to its unique institutional and security environment. Success will require a clear digital census framework. Data must be harmonised, hybrid approaches piloted, and secure infrastructure funded. Public trust must also be built through transparent engagement.